Bitcoin’s price has a long way to go until it peaks
There’s a growing consensus – which, notably, includes the billionaire hedge fund manager Michael Novogratz – that the market prices of both Bitcoin and Ethereum have reached their peak. In other words, they can only head in one direction, and that’s down.
But I disagree.
In fact, I believe that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other leading cryptocurrencies have a long way to go before they approach peak price, and for one simple reason: demand from sovereign wealth funds.
Take, for example, Norway’s sovereign wealth fund. Since falling oil revenues have been hurting the economy for a while now, Norway has, effectively, been forced into withdrawing close to $15 billion in order to make ends meet. According to sources familiar with this decision, there is a growing possibility that Norway could invest in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies – with the expectation that spectacular gains in one or two holdings could more than make up for its current shortfall.
Other national and local governments around the world are contemplating similar moves, for almost the same two related reasons: revenue is drying up, which puts pressure on them to raid their wealth funds; and returns on conventional assets are abysmally low and are poised to remain so for some time. These two factors combine to make the siren call of cryptocurrency almost irresistible.
Hence, my assertion:
Unless the structure of Bitcoin’s supply radically changes in the next few months, its price has a long way to go until it peaks; demand from institutional investors will take care of that.